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      "value": 3.3784560737,
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      "asOf": "2026-09-08",
      "sourceNote": "Source: European Central Bank.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, shown as-is.",
      "history": [
        {
          "period": "2026-06-17",
          "value": 2.9854852656
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-18",
          "value": 2.9853251782
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-19",
          "value": 3.0367350672
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-22",
          "value": 3.0093670766
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-23",
          "value": 2.9707291005
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-24",
          "value": 2.9379971807
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-25",
          "value": 2.9160405586
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-26",
          "value": 2.9223600013
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-29",
          "value": 2.922896152
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-30",
          "value": 2.9244927445
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-01",
          "value": 2.9633626284
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-02",
          "value": 2.9878649255
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-03",
          "value": 3.0061092915
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-06",
          "value": 3.0156822508
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-07",
          "value": 3.0568869592
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-08",
          "value": 3.1370395898
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-09",
          "value": 3.1292327833
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-10",
          "value": 3.1085540184
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-13",
          "value": 3.1247022419
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-14",
          "value": 3.1462568028
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-15",
          "value": 3.1544621071
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-16",
          "value": 3.1773426637
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-17",
          "value": 3.1521219932
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-20",
          "value": 3.1678464688
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-21",
          "value": 3.2100962672
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-22",
          "value": 3.2040119707
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-23",
          "value": 3.2247334899
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-24",
          "value": 3.2069910464
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-27",
          "value": 3.1657910287
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-28",
          "value": 3.1579633503
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-29",
          "value": 3.1750136066
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-30",
          "value": 3.2006565473
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-31",
          "value": 3.2273140986
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-03",
          "value": 3.1854986169
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-04",
          "value": 3.1462738472
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-05",
          "value": 3.1466241785
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-06",
          "value": 3.146678757
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-07",
          "value": 3.1523384986
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-10",
          "value": 3.1993418585
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-11",
          "value": 3.1760932477
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-12",
          "value": 3.1654173208
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-13",
          "value": 3.155665028
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-14",
          "value": 3.2125620965
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-17",
          "value": 3.2423179071
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-18",
          "value": 3.2885961981
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-19",
          "value": 3.2782344774
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-20",
          "value": 3.279171221
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-21",
          "value": 3.2710153758
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-24",
          "value": 3.2803958027
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-25",
          "value": 3.2448308736
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-26",
          "value": 3.2485054634
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-27",
          "value": 3.2772699104
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-28",
          "value": 3.2789202996
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-31",
          "value": 3.3395935506
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-01",
          "value": 3.355151665
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-02",
          "value": 3.3918508877
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-03",
          "value": 3.3646241735
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-04",
          "value": 3.3464967597
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-07",
          "value": 3.3894926929
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-08",
          "value": 3.3784560737
        }
      ],
      "fullRange": {
        "from": "2004-09-06",
        "to": "2026-09-08",
        "count": 5626,
        "percentile": 74.8,
        "min": -0.8152153483803315,
        "max": 4.77633108527732,
        "p10": -0.20303177647161252
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "de-bund-yield-10y",
      "label": "German 10-year government yield",
      "value": 3.41,
      "unit": "percent",
      "asOf": "2026-09-09",
      "sourceNote": "Quelle: Deutsche Bundesbank. Derived values are the author's own calculation based on Bundesbank data.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, shown as-is.",
      "history": [
        {
          "period": "2026-06-18",
          "value": 2.98
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-19",
          "value": 3.01
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-22",
          "value": 3.02
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-23",
          "value": 2.98
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-24",
          "value": 2.95
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-25",
          "value": 2.92
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-26",
          "value": 2.9
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-29",
          "value": 2.91
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06-30",
          "value": 2.9
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-01",
          "value": 2.93
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-02",
          "value": 2.97
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-03",
          "value": 2.98
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-06",
          "value": 2.98
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-07",
          "value": 3.03
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-08",
          "value": 3.12
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-09",
          "value": 3.13
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-10",
          "value": 3.09
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-13",
          "value": 3.11
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-14",
          "value": 3.14
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-15",
          "value": 3.15
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-16",
          "value": 3.17
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-17",
          "value": 3.15
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-20",
          "value": 3.16
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-21",
          "value": 3.17
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-22",
          "value": 3.19
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-23",
          "value": 3.22
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-24",
          "value": 3.21
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-27",
          "value": 3.16
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-28",
          "value": 3.14
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-29",
          "value": 3.15
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-30",
          "value": 3.2
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-07-31",
          "value": 3.18
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-03",
          "value": 3.17
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-04",
          "value": 3.19
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-05",
          "value": 3.12
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-06",
          "value": 3.14
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-07",
          "value": 3.17
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-10",
          "value": 3.16
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-11",
          "value": 3.22
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-12",
          "value": 3.18
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-13",
          "value": 3.17
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-14",
          "value": 3.18
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-17",
          "value": 3.23
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-18",
          "value": 3.28
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-19",
          "value": 3.29
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-20",
          "value": 3.28
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-21",
          "value": 3.27
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-24",
          "value": 3.27
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-25",
          "value": 3.27
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-26",
          "value": 3.22
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-27",
          "value": 3.18
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-28",
          "value": 3.2
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-08-31",
          "value": 3.33
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-01",
          "value": 3.28
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-02",
          "value": 3.41
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-03",
          "value": 3.38
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-04",
          "value": 3.37
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-07",
          "value": 3.37
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-08",
          "value": 3.41
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-09-09",
          "value": 3.41
        }
      ],
      "fullRange": {
        "from": "1997-08-07",
        "to": "2026-09-09",
        "count": 7384,
        "percentile": 60.7,
        "min": -0.85,
        "max": 5.79,
        "p10": -0.09
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "equity-excess-yield-market",
      "label": "US equity excess yield vs TIPS",
      "value": 1.6774305080714897,
      "unit": "percent",
      "asOf": "2025-12",
      "sourceNote": "OECD (2026), Annual non-financial accounts by institutional sector (DSD_NASEC10@DF_TABLE14), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement. Market value via FRED, TIPS via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. CPI deflator: Data developed by Robert J. Shiller, shillerdata.com.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: the US whole-market earnings yield minus the 10-year TIPS real yield, monthly. The TIPS rate is that month's mean of daily values. Market-priced real rate, so it begins in 2003 when TIPS do, or later still if the whole-market earnings yield itself has not started yet. Input: US whole-market earnings yield 3.58% (2025-12) = 100 x (10-year trailing mean of real net corporate earnings) / (real market value of corporate equity). NOT CAPE: the universe is every US non-financial corporation rather than the S&P 500, and earnings are measured pre-tax rather than post-tax. The earnings side is annual national-accounts data published well in arrears, so this reading runs about a year behind the present by design.",
      "history": [
        {
          "period": "2021-01",
          "value": 4.968156965164551
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-02",
          "value": 4.911456241492553
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-03",
          "value": 4.681956467027551
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-04",
          "value": 4.511933865697593
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-05",
          "value": 4.674832473357823
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-06",
          "value": 4.6870319381508505
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-07",
          "value": 4.598255419760822
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-08",
          "value": 4.662077331349605
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-09",
          "value": 4.575914918096384
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-10",
          "value": 4.5866398466075955
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-11",
          "value": 4.708495929284563
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-12",
          "value": 4.656398567632777
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-01",
          "value": 4.288950222816603
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-02",
          "value": 4.160048272929872
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-03",
          "value": 4.403610191351373
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-04",
          "value": 4.060824038989529
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-05",
          "value": 3.758060109691723
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-06",
          "value": 3.4963686667950666
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-07",
          "value": 4.330684885110446
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-08",
          "value": 4.473395626916185
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-09",
          "value": 3.7367533585120896
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-10",
          "value": 3.544714473935419
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-11",
          "value": 3.609528276545198
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-12",
          "value": 3.757113488899588
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-01",
          "value": 3.840440246283907
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-02",
          "value": 3.7504461554421544
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-03",
          "value": 3.819829783572092
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-04",
          "value": 3.6291390788344344
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-05",
          "value": 3.474784581932142
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-06",
          "value": 3.302776639080041
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-07",
          "value": 2.9077635175768006
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-08",
          "value": 2.697854025682557
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-09",
          "value": 2.5047215171903856
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-10",
          "value": 2.3224626102369643
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-11",
          "value": 2.5262555326419753
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-12",
          "value": 2.8846336945470514
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-01",
          "value": 2.675092042821336
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-02",
          "value": 2.569646048769787
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-03",
          "value": 2.6267002046375905
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-04",
          "value": 2.0039534563334667
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-05",
          "value": 2.0076656535838944
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-06",
          "value": 2.107250092947705
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-07",
          "value": 2.0778704244095763
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-08",
          "value": 2.2943500810264936
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-09",
          "value": 2.445764673536073
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-10",
          "value": 2.0462051784466015
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-11",
          "value": 1.8189250720013912
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-12",
          "value": 1.7669347258077033
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-01",
          "value": 1.7000379352591741
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-02",
          "value": 1.9192169716742908
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-03",
          "value": 2.008735676790636
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-04",
          "value": 2.151557017799182
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-05",
          "value": 2.087926410689973
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-06",
          "value": 2.126216598804719
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-07",
          "value": 1.8302212119082886
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-08",
          "value": 1.9665722301043747
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-09",
          "value": 2.1101723859462727
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-10",
          "value": 1.83248385771294
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-11",
          "value": 1.74949414225256
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-12",
          "value": 1.6774305080714897
        }
      ],
      "fullRange": {
        "from": "2003-01",
        "to": "2025-12",
        "count": 276,
        "percentile": 0.4,
        "min": 1.6774305080714897,
        "max": 7.9918750778072285,
        "p10": 2.675092042821336
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "equity-excess-yield-long",
      "label": "US equity excess yield, long-run",
      "value": 2.63517556777651,
      "unit": "percent",
      "asOf": "2025-12",
      "sourceNote": "OECD (2026), Annual non-financial accounts by institutional sector (DSD_NASEC10@DF_TABLE14), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement. Market value via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. CPI deflator and long-run real rate: Data developed by Robert J. Shiller, shillerdata.com.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: the US whole-market earnings yield minus the 10-year Treasury yield less trailing ten-year inflation -- Shiller's own real-rate construction, not priced by TIPS. Input: US whole-market earnings yield 3.58% (2025-12) = 100 x (10-year trailing mean of real net corporate earnings) / (real market value of corporate equity). NOT CAPE: the universe is every US non-financial corporation rather than the S&P 500, and earnings are measured pre-tax rather than post-tax. The earnings side is annual national-accounts data published well in arrears, so this reading runs about a year behind the present by design.",
      "history": [
        {
          "period": "2021-01",
          "value": 4.6235978216063565
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-02",
          "value": 4.470814148721473
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-03",
          "value": 4.12215933613903
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-04",
          "value": 3.8899089031590552
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-05",
          "value": 3.9738486358515
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-06",
          "value": 4.214481458149979
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-07",
          "value": 4.18016707033626
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-08",
          "value": 4.220550305103485
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-09",
          "value": 4.152496659273339
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-10",
          "value": 4.075666960147085
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-11",
          "value": 4.1721544480949895
        },
        {
          "period": "2021-12",
          "value": 4.32991648067437
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-01",
          "value": 4.020898670821052
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-02",
          "value": 3.931839101505644
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-03",
          "value": 3.8386457645662233
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-04",
          "value": 3.4841463751532764
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-05",
          "value": 3.501658925983288
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-06",
          "value": 3.4710534975125076
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-07",
          "value": 4.569178205771307
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-08",
          "value": 4.506892382352863
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-09",
          "value": 3.8737300982059106
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-10",
          "value": 3.7205258743187186
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-11",
          "value": 3.8436942561527068
        },
        {
          "period": "2022-12",
          "value": 4.094066575183103
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-01",
          "value": 4.256648758042262
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-02",
          "value": 4.038728340068299
        },
        {
          "period": "2023-03",
          "value": 4.152947761378861
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          "period": "2023-04",
          "value": 4.057373264368954
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        {
          "period": "2023-05",
          "value": 3.9670819415376637
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          "period": "2023-06",
          "value": 3.8111856357691245
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        {
          "period": "2023-07",
          "value": 3.3370822325650527
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          "period": "2023-08",
          "value": 3.119201205028343
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        {
          "period": "2023-09",
          "value": 2.9340221720124875
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          "period": "2023-10",
          "value": 2.729230585153182
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          "value": 3.0199712168878907
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          "period": "2023-12",
          "value": 3.4859445870184596
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          "period": "2024-01",
          "value": 3.2104819534713203
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          "period": "2024-02",
          "value": 3.113624546247861
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          "period": "2024-03",
          "value": 3.1429251952648674
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          "period": "2024-04",
          "value": 2.444290815341228
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          "period": "2024-05",
          "value": 2.4924059721414773
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          "value": 2.6188120579352683
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          "value": 2.644620643022321
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          "period": "2024-11",
          "value": 2.432673503747881
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          "period": "2024-12",
          "value": 2.466247588653216
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        {
          "period": "2025-01",
          "value": 2.41568425772195
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-02",
          "value": 2.614146852508392
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          "period": "2025-03",
          "value": 2.754975221660581
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          "value": 3.0008222684819827
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          "period": "2025-05",
          "value": 2.838671524497208
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        {
          "period": "2025-06",
          "value": 2.8920254515961172
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          "period": "2025-07",
          "value": 2.522570070834054
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          "period": "2025-08",
          "value": 2.707781409300485
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          "period": "2025-09",
          "value": 2.899840034650538
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          "period": "2025-10",
          "value": 2.7076409522804235
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          "period": "2025-11",
          "value": 2.652772343717622
        },
        {
          "period": "2025-12",
          "value": 2.63517556777651
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      ],
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        "from": "1980-01",
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        "count": 552,
        "percentile": 8.2,
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        "p10": 2.7501532867342187
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    },
    {
      "id": "equity-drawdown",
      "label": "Share prices vs trailing 12-month high",
      "value": 0.0,
      "unit": "percent",
      "asOf": "2026-07",
      "sourceNote": "OECD (2026), Financial market (DSD_STES@DF_FINMARK), https://sdmx.oecd.org. Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own equal-weight composite of OECD national share price indices, monthly. Not MSCI World and not 'the world stock market'. Monthly granularity cannot capture an intra-month drawdown: a fall and recovery inside one month leaves no trace here. OECD also publishes each month in arrears, and the newest month is held back while it is still built from part of its components, so this reading runs about three months behind the present by design.",
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          "period": "2022-02",
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          "period": "2022-08",
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        {
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        {
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          "period": "2023-03",
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        {
          "period": "2023-04",
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          "period": "2023-05",
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          "period": "2023-06",
          "value": -1.3481822358158368
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        {
          "period": "2023-07",
          "value": -0.03303917889515562
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          "period": "2023-08",
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        {
          "period": "2023-09",
          "value": -2.3413519055202836
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        {
          "period": "2023-10",
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          "period": "2023-11",
          "value": -2.7049877715314197
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          "period": "2024-01",
          "value": -0.028818008992426147
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        {
          "period": "2024-02",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-03",
          "value": 0.0
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        {
          "period": "2024-04",
          "value": -0.5075289295645546
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        {
          "period": "2024-05",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-06",
          "value": -1.1427819231806746
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        {
          "period": "2024-07",
          "value": -1.2768824116261623
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        {
          "period": "2024-08",
          "value": -2.452251900153252
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        {
          "period": "2024-09",
          "value": -1.402187961753526
        },
        {
          "period": "2024-10",
          "value": -0.8074408526948407
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        {
          "period": "2024-11",
          "value": -2.1181951886782793
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        {
          "period": "2024-12",
          "value": -1.9006702400786113
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        {
          "period": "2025-01",
          "value": -0.8003016821521547
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        {
          "period": "2025-02",
          "value": 0.0
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        {
          "period": "2025-03",
          "value": -1.5235250544639145
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        {
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          "value": -7.396330219384134
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        {
          "period": "2025-05",
          "value": -1.1684911832634037
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        {
          "period": "2025-06",
          "value": -0.0714328538581499
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          "period": "2025-07",
          "value": 0.0
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        {
          "period": "2025-08",
          "value": 0.0
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        {
          "period": "2025-09",
          "value": 0.0
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        {
          "period": "2025-10",
          "value": 0.0
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          "period": "2025-11",
          "value": -0.3810151879620416
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        {
          "period": "2025-12",
          "value": 0.0
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        {
          "period": "2026-01",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-02",
          "value": 0.0
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-03",
          "value": -4.855810245704994
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        {
          "period": "2026-04",
          "value": -2.0755218621740013
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-05",
          "value": -0.6392748320794894
        },
        {
          "period": "2026-06",
          "value": 0.0
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        {
          "period": "2026-07",
          "value": 0.0
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      ],
      "fullRange": {
        "from": "1957-01",
        "to": "2026-07",
        "count": 835,
        "percentile": 100.0,
        "min": -49.706845291196885,
        "max": 0.0,
        "p10": -16.457178706520313
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    }
  ],
  "secular": {
    "asOf": "2026-Q2",
    "series": [
      {
        "id": "reserve-usd-share-fx-adjusted",
        "label": "USD share of allocated FX reserves, FX-adjusted",
        "value": 56.506375381437735,
        "asOf": "2026-Q1",
        "history": [
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            "period": "1999-Q1",
            "value": 71.18886898710112
          },
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            "period": "1999-Q2",
            "value": 71.18476295300631
          },
          {
            "period": "1999-Q3",
            "value": 69.90590439793868
          },
          {
            "period": "1999-Q4",
            "value": 70.45410186624194
          },
          {
            "period": "2000-Q1",
            "value": 69.49922803710871
          },
          {
            "period": "2000-Q2",
            "value": 68.5951643564877
          },
          {
            "period": "2000-Q3",
            "value": 68.06841547042445
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          {
            "period": "2000-Q4",
            "value": 66.28023419421707
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            "period": "2001-Q1",
            "value": 67.77608021586342
          },
          {
            "period": "2001-Q2",
            "value": 67.56862461919184
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          {
            "period": "2001-Q3",
            "value": 67.17638898414835
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          {
            "period": "2001-Q4",
            "value": 67.15329325231502
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            "period": "2002-Q1",
            "value": 66.2413186976361
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          {
            "period": "2002-Q2",
            "value": 64.3474561865478
          },
          {
            "period": "2002-Q3",
            "value": 64.58584598305191
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            "period": "2002-Q4",
            "value": 62.93138706147935
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            "period": "2003-Q1",
            "value": 63.8682624363787
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            "period": "2003-Q2",
            "value": 64.78204995011991
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            "period": "2003-Q3",
            "value": 64.93751043786364
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            "period": "2003-Q4",
            "value": 64.82592387733659
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            "period": "2004-Q1",
            "value": 66.83750556589627
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            "period": "2004-Q2",
            "value": 66.383680711559
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            "period": "2004-Q3",
            "value": 66.19822099524346
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            "period": "2004-Q4",
            "value": 66.1900145204798
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            "period": "2005-Q1",
            "value": 67.25638554139822
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            "period": "2005-Q2",
            "value": 66.99716610679685
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            "period": "2005-Q3",
            "value": 66.64064391736191
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            "period": "2005-Q4",
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            "period": "2006-Q1",
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            "value": 66.17614022967348
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            "period": "2006-Q3",
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            "period": "2006-Q4",
            "value": 66.14238570991452
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            "period": "2007-Q1",
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            "value": 66.55103471266408
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            "value": 66.31217183394223
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            "period": "2007-Q4",
            "value": 67.01459592054849
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            "period": "2008-Q1",
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            "period": "2008-Q2",
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            "period": "2008-Q3",
            "value": 68.58152261846224
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            "period": "2008-Q4",
            "value": 65.59180405681029
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            "period": "2009-Q1",
            "value": 66.02903204962641
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            "period": "2009-Q3",
            "value": 65.24521467890797
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            "value": 66.26002003428326
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            "period": "2011-Q4",
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            "value": 64.77249133240115
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            "value": 64.77510688855995
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            "period": "2012-Q3",
            "value": 64.13828968264222
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            "period": "2013-Q1",
            "value": 65.60057583731435
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            "period": "2013-Q2",
            "value": 65.23454399787475
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            "period": "2013-Q3",
            "value": 65.05919970284705
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            "period": "2013-Q4",
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            "period": "2014-Q1",
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            "period": "2014-Q2",
            "value": 65.27339057059905
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            "period": "2014-Q3",
            "value": 65.73802675494274
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            "period": "2014-Q4",
            "value": 64.75193190393587
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            "period": "2015-Q1",
            "value": 63.83824078982671
          },
          {
            "period": "2015-Q2",
            "value": 63.55708730813362
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            "period": "2015-Q3",
            "value": 64.22199180469818
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            "period": "2015-Q4",
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            "period": "2016-Q1",
            "value": 63.632993284234765
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            "period": "2017-Q1",
            "value": 63.276138179890104
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            "value": 64.39866370369252
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            "period": "2018-Q4",
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          },
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            "period": "2019-Q1",
            "value": 62.3534636526438
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            "period": "2019-Q3",
            "value": 61.783219907862666
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            "period": "2019-Q4",
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          },
          {
            "period": "2020-Q1",
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            "value": 60.63672275403146
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            "value": 60.91777731123784
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            "period": "2021-Q4",
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            "period": "2022-Q1",
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            "value": 58.94298857807557
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q3",
            "value": 58.16954770206137
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q4",
            "value": 56.55088062048923
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q1",
            "value": 58.81781030387718
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q2",
            "value": 58.574098373154484
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q3",
            "value": 58.241219971000405
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q4",
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            "period": "2024-Q1",
            "value": 57.89830726074191
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          {
            "period": "2024-Q2",
            "value": 56.95355907840861
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            "value": 56.472888134849306
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            "value": 56.535855003347955
          },
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            "value": 56.18679305436272
          },
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            "period": "2025-Q2",
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            "period": "2025-Q3",
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            "period": "2025-Q4",
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          {
            "period": "2026-Q1",
            "value": 56.506375381437735
          }
        ],
        "unit": "percent",
        "slope5y": -1.0012119798847423,
        "fullRange": {
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          "to": "2026-Q1",
          "count": 109,
          "percentile": 5.5,
          "min": 55.60231657802836,
          "max": 71.18886898710112,
          "p10": 57.89830726074191
        },
        "criterion": {
          "rule": "at-or-below",
          "percentile": 10,
          "supports": "the dollar's reserve role is eroding"
        },
        "supports": true,
        "sourceNote": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here. FX rates: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
        "derivationNote": "Our own calculation, not an IMF series: COFER's own TYPE_OF_TRANSFORMATION dimension offers only nominal USD values and the raw (unadjusted) share -- the IMF publishes the revaluation method but not this series. Every non-USD currency's nominal holdings are revalued at the earliest available quarter's exchange rates (1999-Q1, when COFER's euro-era window opens) before the share is taken, so a currency simply moving in the FX market cannot show up here as de-dollarisation."
      },
      {
        "id": "reserve-nontraditional-share",
        "label": "Non-traditional currencies' share of allocated reserves",
        "value": 12.753729713944267,
        "asOf": "2026-Q1",
        "history": [
          {
            "period": "1999-Q1",
            "value": 1.6234548375750435
          },
          {
            "period": "1999-Q2",
            "value": 1.6365503144180429
          },
          {
            "period": "1999-Q3",
            "value": 1.7031995313154402
          },
          {
            "period": "1999-Q4",
            "value": 1.5969929503273903
          },
          {
            "period": "2000-Q1",
            "value": 2.554458935948037
          },
          {
            "period": "2000-Q2",
            "value": 2.241887519382978
          },
          {
            "period": "2000-Q3",
            "value": 2.343522606911595
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          {
            "period": "2000-Q4",
            "value": 2.4474894081681313
          },
          {
            "period": "2001-Q1",
            "value": 2.517660424203533
          },
          {
            "period": "2001-Q2",
            "value": 2.2508761582310726
          },
          {
            "period": "2001-Q3",
            "value": 2.2239851480480346
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          {
            "period": "2001-Q4",
            "value": 2.06518125619349
          },
          {
            "period": "2002-Q1",
            "value": 2.1633081298865435
          },
          {
            "period": "2002-Q2",
            "value": 2.354261930139265
          },
          {
            "period": "2002-Q3",
            "value": 2.4840599698381713
          },
          {
            "period": "2002-Q4",
            "value": 2.469820497581218
          },
          {
            "period": "2003-Q1",
            "value": 2.9026313045879344
          },
          {
            "period": "2003-Q2",
            "value": 2.986364031423393
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          {
            "period": "2003-Q3",
            "value": 3.028774029862157
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          {
            "period": "2003-Q4",
            "value": 3.0991112772939506
          },
          {
            "period": "2004-Q1",
            "value": 2.934508664789382
          },
          {
            "period": "2004-Q2",
            "value": 2.9765327405837563
          },
          {
            "period": "2004-Q3",
            "value": 3.034412513983633
          },
          {
            "period": "2004-Q4",
            "value": 3.0855354793375334
          },
          {
            "period": "2005-Q1",
            "value": 2.977392148338736
          },
          {
            "period": "2005-Q2",
            "value": 3.0623365054097595
          },
          {
            "period": "2005-Q3",
            "value": 3.213738598390952
          },
          {
            "period": "2005-Q4",
            "value": 3.4719034591934705
          },
          {
            "period": "2006-Q1",
            "value": 3.3772321539113657
          },
          {
            "period": "2006-Q2",
            "value": 3.589213765436584
          },
          {
            "period": "2006-Q3",
            "value": 3.544854868291733
          },
          {
            "period": "2006-Q4",
            "value": 3.691341423372833
          },
          {
            "period": "2007-Q1",
            "value": 3.8370270758385123
          },
          {
            "period": "2007-Q2",
            "value": 4.002319739172387
          },
          {
            "period": "2007-Q3",
            "value": 4.105709763132749
          },
          {
            "period": "2007-Q4",
            "value": 4.025065693687189
          },
          {
            "period": "2008-Q1",
            "value": 3.934941385153611
          },
          {
            "period": "2008-Q2",
            "value": 4.011627643141789
          },
          {
            "period": "2008-Q3",
            "value": 3.994149182009522
          },
          {
            "period": "2008-Q4",
            "value": 4.3171228802599115
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          {
            "period": "2009-Q1",
            "value": 4.328538348056241
          },
          {
            "period": "2009-Q2",
            "value": 4.768054699678387
          },
          {
            "period": "2009-Q3",
            "value": 5.629054502687137
          },
          {
            "period": "2009-Q4",
            "value": 5.208032643477597
          },
          {
            "period": "2010-Q1",
            "value": 5.511880840928888
          },
          {
            "period": "2010-Q2",
            "value": 5.538993188315203
          },
          {
            "period": "2010-Q3",
            "value": 5.81885448187001
          },
          {
            "period": "2010-Q4",
            "value": 6.043483140343202
          },
          {
            "period": "2011-Q1",
            "value": 6.341302589337672
          },
          {
            "period": "2011-Q2",
            "value": 6.458331892719467
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          {
            "period": "2011-Q3",
            "value": 6.395779879770765
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          {
            "period": "2011-Q4",
            "value": 6.848163339818885
          },
          {
            "period": "2012-Q1",
            "value": 7.054391407004558
          },
          {
            "period": "2012-Q2",
            "value": 6.872259333993476
          },
          {
            "period": "2012-Q3",
            "value": 7.220878432597185
          },
          {
            "period": "2012-Q4",
            "value": 7.367196616857978
          },
          {
            "period": "2013-Q1",
            "value": 7.688952942784274
          },
          {
            "period": "2013-Q2",
            "value": 7.580755010288183
          },
          {
            "period": "2013-Q3",
            "value": 7.6244714607654025
          },
          {
            "period": "2013-Q4",
            "value": 7.603042656190196
          },
          {
            "period": "2014-Q1",
            "value": 7.669864674800355
          },
          {
            "period": "2014-Q2",
            "value": 7.79188545319441
          },
          {
            "period": "2014-Q3",
            "value": 7.780650542708625
          },
          {
            "period": "2014-Q4",
            "value": 7.7576128961374975
          },
          {
            "period": "2015-Q1",
            "value": 7.519954495795581
          },
          {
            "period": "2015-Q2",
            "value": 7.490730754957656
          },
          {
            "period": "2015-Q3",
            "value": 7.074951538395488
          },
          {
            "period": "2015-Q4",
            "value": 7.08893032111088
          },
          {
            "period": "2016-Q1",
            "value": 7.231650479570003
          },
          {
            "period": "2016-Q2",
            "value": 7.2076829002018075
          },
          {
            "period": "2016-Q3",
            "value": 7.464033713776887
          },
          {
            "period": "2016-Q4",
            "value": 7.570429737042766
          },
          {
            "period": "2017-Q1",
            "value": 7.568417273595908
          },
          {
            "period": "2017-Q2",
            "value": 7.397188086439728
          },
          {
            "period": "2017-Q3",
            "value": 7.573347794714154
          },
          {
            "period": "2017-Q4",
            "value": 7.801179812429989
          },
          {
            "period": "2018-Q1",
            "value": 7.708869328686752
          },
          {
            "period": "2018-Q2",
            "value": 8.10952290206182
          },
          {
            "period": "2018-Q3",
            "value": 8.194047627550914
          },
          {
            "period": "2018-Q4",
            "value": 8.169759619991563
          },
          {
            "period": "2019-Q1",
            "value": 8.11539996264151
          },
          {
            "period": "2019-Q2",
            "value": 8.140553902227701
          },
          {
            "period": "2019-Q3",
            "value": 8.04017238240395
          },
          {
            "period": "2019-Q4",
            "value": 8.216637765458556
          },
          {
            "period": "2020-Q1",
            "value": 7.698532830779632
          },
          {
            "period": "2020-Q2",
            "value": 8.243982595015986
          },
          {
            "period": "2020-Q3",
            "value": 8.54361558835601
          },
          {
            "period": "2020-Q4",
            "value": 8.95151083511787
          },
          {
            "period": "2021-Q1",
            "value": 9.439443397028581
          },
          {
            "period": "2021-Q2",
            "value": 9.814788120291567
          },
          {
            "period": "2021-Q3",
            "value": 9.78372168466368
          },
          {
            "period": "2021-Q4",
            "value": 10.235271266272198
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q1",
            "value": 10.654510697506693
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q2",
            "value": 10.51088132174918
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q3",
            "value": 10.624167026105221
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q4",
            "value": 10.614564908824956
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q1",
            "value": 10.859395126683797
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q2",
            "value": 10.89236831244925
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q3",
            "value": 11.173107942917166
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q4",
            "value": 11.383163671644972
          },
          {
            "period": "2024-Q1",
            "value": 11.134101869149507
          },
          {
            "period": "2024-Q2",
            "value": 11.819420452678083
          },
          {
            "period": "2024-Q3",
            "value": 12.299153236759967
          },
          {
            "period": "2024-Q4",
            "value": 12.224290935177716
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-Q1",
            "value": 11.907571392722797
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-Q2",
            "value": 12.190275902037348
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-Q3",
            "value": 12.367474197768495
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-Q4",
            "value": 12.720932433389287
          },
          {
            "period": "2026-Q1",
            "value": 12.753729713944267
          }
        ],
        "unit": "percent",
        "slope5y": 0.6628572633831371,
        "fullRange": {
          "from": "1999-Q1",
          "to": "2026-Q1",
          "count": 109,
          "percentile": 100.0,
          "min": 1.5969929503273903,
          "max": 12.753729713944267,
          "p10": 2.354261930139265
        },
        "criterion": {
          "rule": "at-or-above",
          "percentile": 90,
          "supports": "reserve managers are diversifying away from the majors"
        },
        "supports": true,
        "sourceNote": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
        "derivationNote": "Own calculation: AUD + CAD + CNY + OTHC nominal claims as a percent of COFER's own reported total (CI_T). AUD/CAD report separately only from 2012-Q4 and CNY only from 2016-Q4 -- before those dates their holdings sit inside OTHC already, so the sum is continuous across the whole window rather than starting where the last one joins."
      },
      {
        "id": "us-treasuries-foreign-share",
        "label": "Federal debt held by foreign and international investors, share of total public debt",
        "value": 24.071500840122876,
        "asOf": "2025-Q4",
        "history": [
          {
            "period": "1970-Q1",
            "value": 3.333270610499265
          },
          {
            "period": "1970-Q2",
            "value": 3.7828227423303264
          },
          {
            "period": "1970-Q3",
            "value": 4.383671615462213
          },
          {
            "period": "1970-Q4",
            "value": 5.0622112355392925
          },
          {
            "period": "1971-Q1",
            "value": 6.280829682281933
          },
          {
            "period": "1971-Q2",
            "value": 8.003926454487106
          },
          {
            "period": "1971-Q3",
            "value": 10.066267573520138
          },
          {
            "period": "1971-Q4",
            "value": 10.845705689987293
          },
          {
            "period": "1972-Q1",
            "value": 11.466172451233666
          },
          {
            "period": "1972-Q2",
            "value": 11.53751450983151
          },
          {
            "period": "1972-Q3",
            "value": 12.559166347886602
          },
          {
            "period": "1972-Q4",
            "value": 12.13005019254225
          },
          {
            "period": "1973-Q1",
            "value": 13.56284043383645
          },
          {
            "period": "1973-Q2",
            "value": 12.988802078208334
          },
          {
            "period": "1973-Q3",
            "value": 12.526757762464886
          },
          {
            "period": "1973-Q4",
            "value": 11.661297921645458
          },
          {
            "period": "1974-Q1",
            "value": 11.421333192589856
          },
          {
            "period": "1974-Q2",
            "value": 11.977184307358165
          },
          {
            "period": "1974-Q3",
            "value": 11.631143216758815
          },
          {
            "period": "1974-Q4",
            "value": 11.935111962716984
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            "period": "1975-Q1",
            "value": 12.753625463299972
          },
          {
            "period": "1975-Q2",
            "value": 12.378373106671567
          },
          {
            "period": "1975-Q3",
            "value": 11.830642990931045
          },
          {
            "period": "1975-Q4",
            "value": 11.53214520444846
          },
          {
            "period": "1976-Q1",
            "value": 11.340738396975802
          },
          {
            "period": "1976-Q2",
            "value": 11.250225649225056
          },
          {
            "period": "1976-Q3",
            "value": 11.753565852267446
          },
          {
            "period": "1976-Q4",
            "value": 11.950246579031525
          },
          {
            "period": "1977-Q1",
            "value": 12.656771372684386
          },
          {
            "period": "1977-Q2",
            "value": 13.033324683990067
          },
          {
            "period": "1977-Q3",
            "value": 13.665502833266558
          },
          {
            "period": "1977-Q4",
            "value": 15.24460214509356
          },
          {
            "period": "1978-Q1",
            "value": 16.87103886301394
          },
          {
            "period": "1978-Q2",
            "value": 15.954094928867432
          },
          {
            "period": "1978-Q3",
            "value": 15.669877544248934
          },
          {
            "period": "1978-Q4",
            "value": 16.865030340582383
          },
          {
            "period": "1979-Q1",
            "value": 16.666834004357472
          },
          {
            "period": "1979-Q2",
            "value": 14.846325006553505
          },
          {
            "period": "1979-Q3",
            "value": 15.026877785023697
          },
          {
            "period": "1979-Q4",
            "value": 14.08090723640305
          },
          {
            "period": "1980-Q1",
            "value": 14.476791387119825
          },
          {
            "period": "1980-Q2",
            "value": 13.468335737579393
          },
          {
            "period": "1980-Q3",
            "value": 13.738004034368146
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          {
            "period": "1980-Q4",
            "value": 13.943088119886907
          },
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            "period": "1981-Q1",
            "value": 14.32820718048461
          },
          {
            "period": "1981-Q2",
            "value": 14.065450681340316
          },
          {
            "period": "1981-Q3",
            "value": 13.098095414664455
          },
          {
            "period": "1981-Q4",
            "value": 13.278521359852787
          },
          {
            "period": "1982-Q1",
            "value": 12.823907306046648
          },
          {
            "period": "1982-Q2",
            "value": 12.70805739003177
          },
          {
            "period": "1982-Q3",
            "value": 12.311356482069288
          },
          {
            "period": "1982-Q4",
            "value": 12.488785154468312
          },
          {
            "period": "1983-Q1",
            "value": 12.551295989611832
          },
          {
            "period": "1983-Q2",
            "value": 12.132639072554092
          },
          {
            "period": "1983-Q3",
            "value": 11.624943454561429
          },
          {
            "period": "1983-Q4",
            "value": 11.788457094411152
          },
          {
            "period": "1984-Q1",
            "value": 11.3612995741733
          },
          {
            "period": "1984-Q2",
            "value": 11.343977015886194
          },
          {
            "period": "1984-Q3",
            "value": 11.168586505981489
          },
          {
            "period": "1984-Q4",
            "value": 11.599756098440979
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          {
            "period": "1985-Q1",
            "value": 11.667526922701466
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            "period": "1985-Q2",
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          },
          {
            "period": "1985-Q3",
            "value": 12.226407394425877
          },
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            "period": "1985-Q4",
            "value": 11.55224564760923
          },
          {
            "period": "1986-Q1",
            "value": 11.707173688957608
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            "period": "1986-Q2",
            "value": 12.18346186100559
          },
          {
            "period": "1986-Q3",
            "value": 12.49233050895307
          },
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            "period": "1986-Q4",
            "value": 11.892533755336176
          },
          {
            "period": "1987-Q1",
            "value": 12.142123376080018
          },
          {
            "period": "1987-Q2",
            "value": 12.1725408955803
          },
          {
            "period": "1987-Q3",
            "value": 11.892215258031287
          },
          {
            "period": "1987-Q4",
            "value": 12.324635082647433
          },
          {
            "period": "1988-Q1",
            "value": 13.366560122787433
          },
          {
            "period": "1988-Q2",
            "value": 13.557560361367468
          },
          {
            "period": "1988-Q3",
            "value": 13.292685410672501
          },
          {
            "period": "1988-Q4",
            "value": 13.492813270193027
          },
          {
            "period": "1989-Q1",
            "value": 13.626920812084215
          },
          {
            "period": "1989-Q2",
            "value": 13.086074152753485
          },
          {
            "period": "1989-Q3",
            "value": 13.711617183407053
          },
          {
            "period": "1989-Q4",
            "value": 14.429423154940377
          },
          {
            "period": "1990-Q1",
            "value": 14.593909876872486
          },
          {
            "period": "1990-Q2",
            "value": 14.345906200039826
          },
          {
            "period": "1990-Q3",
            "value": 14.34442010408519
          },
          {
            "period": "1990-Q4",
            "value": 14.476257273791763
          },
          {
            "period": "1991-Q1",
            "value": 14.19835974314821
          },
          {
            "period": "1991-Q2",
            "value": 14.188855360730448
          },
          {
            "period": "1991-Q3",
            "value": 13.81331911713711
          },
          {
            "period": "1991-Q4",
            "value": 13.701772208102799
          },
          {
            "period": "1992-Q1",
            "value": 13.820154546635036
          },
          {
            "period": "1992-Q2",
            "value": 14.008737517115655
          },
          {
            "period": "1992-Q3",
            "value": 13.846309409905622
          },
          {
            "period": "1992-Q4",
            "value": 13.806529983536068
          },
          {
            "period": "1993-Q1",
            "value": 13.849164889920532
          },
          {
            "period": "1993-Q2",
            "value": 13.71339284688473
          },
          {
            "period": "1993-Q3",
            "value": 14.033810352921655
          },
          {
            "period": "1993-Q4",
            "value": 14.337409084886149
          },
          {
            "period": "1994-Q1",
            "value": 14.447528983019401
          },
          {
            "period": "1994-Q2",
            "value": 14.204221359412216
          },
          {
            "period": "1994-Q3",
            "value": 14.533056310265835
          },
          {
            "period": "1994-Q4",
            "value": 13.901648906804995
          },
          {
            "period": "1995-Q1",
            "value": 14.535015201117737
          },
          {
            "period": "1995-Q2",
            "value": 15.399772022784797
          },
          {
            "period": "1995-Q3",
            "value": 16.49382396361226
          },
          {
            "period": "1995-Q4",
            "value": 16.74195400974008
          },
          {
            "period": "1996-Q1",
            "value": 17.74400101919072
          },
          {
            "period": "1996-Q2",
            "value": 18.013685518291148
          },
          {
            "period": "1996-Q3",
            "value": 19.013127938981906
          },
          {
            "period": "1996-Q4",
            "value": 20.703820954874274
          },
          {
            "period": "1997-Q1",
            "value": 21.513169754445826
          },
          {
            "period": "1997-Q2",
            "value": 21.999010072447742
          },
          {
            "period": "1997-Q3",
            "value": 22.73169798117398
          },
          {
            "period": "1997-Q4",
            "value": 22.564748251122968
          },
          {
            "period": "1998-Q1",
            "value": 22.56232198679784
          },
          {
            "period": "1998-Q2",
            "value": 22.639053990358573
          },
          {
            "period": "1998-Q3",
            "value": 22.152682687702004
          },
          {
            "period": "1998-Q4",
            "value": 22.776105732998918
          },
          {
            "period": "1999-Q1",
            "value": 22.512149182136433
          },
          {
            "period": "1999-Q2",
            "value": 22.323977881740376
          },
          {
            "period": "1999-Q3",
            "value": 22.65450152582859
          },
          {
            "period": "1999-Q4",
            "value": 21.96468165061804
          },
          {
            "period": "2000-Q1",
            "value": 18.793111571152625
          },
          {
            "period": "2000-Q2",
            "value": 18.65479363299424
          },
          {
            "period": "2000-Q3",
            "value": 18.307494352927534
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            "period": "2000-Q4",
            "value": 17.929376060538843
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            "period": "2001-Q1",
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            "period": "2001-Q2",
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            "period": "2001-Q3",
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            "period": "2001-Q4",
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            "period": "2002-Q1",
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            "period": "2002-Q2",
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            "period": "2002-Q3",
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            "period": "2002-Q4",
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            "period": "2003-Q1",
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            "period": "2003-Q2",
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            "period": "2003-Q3",
            "value": 21.277191699639705
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            "period": "2003-Q4",
            "value": 21.764901905754304
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            "period": "2004-Q1",
            "value": 23.418652016780655
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            "period": "2004-Q2",
            "value": 23.856476227723906
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            "period": "2004-Q3",
            "value": 24.318838745296993
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            "period": "2004-Q4",
            "value": 24.345249951192336
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            "period": "2005-Q1",
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            "period": "2005-Q2",
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            "period": "2005-Q3",
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            "period": "2005-Q4",
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            "period": "2006-Q1",
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            "period": "2006-Q2",
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            "period": "2006-Q3",
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            "period": "2006-Q4",
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            "period": "2007-Q1",
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            "period": "2007-Q2",
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            "period": "2007-Q3",
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            "period": "2007-Q4",
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            "period": "2008-Q1",
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            "period": "2008-Q2",
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            "period": "2008-Q3",
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            "period": "2008-Q4",
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            "period": "2009-Q1",
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            "period": "2009-Q2",
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            "period": "2009-Q3",
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            "period": "2009-Q4",
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            "period": "2010-Q1",
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            "period": "2010-Q2",
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            "period": "2010-Q3",
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            "period": "2010-Q4",
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            "period": "2011-Q1",
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            "period": "2011-Q2",
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            "period": "2011-Q3",
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            "period": "2011-Q4",
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            "period": "2012-Q1",
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            "period": "2012-Q2",
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            "period": "2012-Q3",
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            "period": "2012-Q4",
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            "period": "2013-Q1",
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            "period": "2013-Q3",
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            "period": "2013-Q4",
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            "period": "2014-Q1",
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            "period": "2014-Q2",
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            "period": "2014-Q3",
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            "period": "2015-Q3",
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            "period": "2015-Q4",
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            "period": "2016-Q1",
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            "period": "2017-Q3",
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            "period": "2017-Q4",
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            "period": "2018-Q1",
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            "period": "2020-Q1",
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            "period": "2020-Q2",
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            "period": "2020-Q3",
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            "period": "2020-Q4",
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            "period": "2021-Q1",
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            "period": "2021-Q2",
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            "period": "2021-Q4",
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            "period": "2022-Q1",
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            "period": "2022-Q3",
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            "period": "2022-Q4",
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            "period": "2023-Q1",
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            "period": "2023-Q2",
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          {
            "period": "2023-Q3",
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          {
            "period": "2023-Q4",
            "value": 23.351915065849756
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            "period": "2024-Q1",
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            "period": "2024-Q2",
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            "period": "2024-Q3",
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            "period": "2024-Q4",
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            "period": "2025-Q1",
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            "period": "2025-Q2",
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          {
            "period": "2025-Q3",
            "value": 24.535070330502677
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            "period": "2025-Q4",
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        ],
        "unit": "percent",
        "slope5y": -1.017830582171194,
        "fullRange": {
          "from": "1970-Q1",
          "to": "2025-Q4",
          "count": 224,
          "percentile": 67.4,
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        "criterion": {
          "rule": "at-or-below",
          "percentile": 10,
          "supports": "external appetite for financing the US is falling"
        },
        "supports": false,
        "sourceNote": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis / U.S. Department of the Treasury via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
        "derivationNote": "Own calculation: federal debt held by foreign and international investors (FRED FDHBFIN, USD billions) divided by total public debt outstanding (FRED GFDEBTN, USD millions), on shared quarters only. The numerator is rescaled x1000 before dividing so both series feed the ratio in the same units -- billions vs. millions, if left unreconciled, understates the share by three orders of magnitude."
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            "period": "1985-Q4",
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            "period": "1989-Q1",
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            "period": "1989-Q3",
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            "period": "1990-Q3",
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            "period": "1996-Q4",
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            "period": "2021-Q4",
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            "period": "2022-Q2",
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            "period": "2022-Q3",
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            "period": "2022-Q4",
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            "period": "2023-Q1",
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            "period": "2023-Q3",
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            "period": "2023-Q4",
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            "period": "2024-Q1",
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            "period": "2024-Q2",
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            "period": "2024-Q3",
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            "period": "2024-Q4",
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            "period": "2025-Q1",
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            "period": "2025-Q2",
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            "period": "2025-Q3",
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            "period": "2025-Q4",
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            "period": "2026-Q1",
            "value": 20.75672409879477
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            "period": "2026-Q2",
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        ],
        "unit": "percent",
        "slope5y": 1.514242017467248,
        "fullRange": {
          "from": "1947-Q1",
          "to": "2026-Q2",
          "count": 318,
          "percentile": 76.4,
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          "max": 28.598992331792537,
          "p10": 12.414355566529132
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        "criterion": {
          "rule": "at-or-above",
          "percentile": 90,
          "supports": "the debt cycle is consuming a rising share of revenue"
        },
        "supports": false,
        "sourceNote": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis / U.S. Department of the Treasury via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
        "derivationNote": "Own calculation: federal government interest payments divided by federal government current receipts, on shared quarters only."
      },
      {
        "id": "us-market-cap-share",
        "label": "US share of world stock market capitalisation",
        "value": 54.03,
        "asOf": "2024",
        "history": [
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            "period": "1975",
            "value": 61.26
          },
          {
            "period": "1976",
            "value": 66.2
          },
          {
            "period": "1977",
            "value": 61.3
          },
          {
            "period": "1978",
            "value": 56.54
          },
          {
            "period": "1979",
            "value": 50.79
          },
          {
            "period": "1980",
            "value": 53.84
          },
          {
            "period": "1981",
            "value": 53.94
          },
          {
            "period": "1982",
            "value": 53.91
          },
          {
            "period": "1983",
            "value": 54.15
          },
          {
            "period": "1984",
            "value": 48.73
          },
          {
            "period": "1985",
            "value": 49.11
          },
          {
            "period": "1986",
            "value": 39.31
          },
          {
            "period": "1987",
            "value": 32.63
          },
          {
            "period": "1988",
            "value": 29.44
          },
          {
            "period": "1989",
            "value": 29.32
          },
          {
            "period": "1990",
            "value": 32.5
          },
          {
            "period": "1991",
            "value": 36.68
          },
          {
            "period": "1992",
            "value": 42.02
          },
          {
            "period": "1993",
            "value": 37.78
          },
          {
            "period": "1994",
            "value": 35.09
          },
          {
            "period": "1995",
            "value": 40.27
          },
          {
            "period": "1996",
            "value": 42.82
          },
          {
            "period": "1997",
            "value": 48.89
          },
          {
            "period": "1998",
            "value": 52.63
          },
          {
            "period": "1999",
            "value": 44.54
          },
          {
            "period": "2000",
            "value": 48.85
          },
          {
            "period": "2001",
            "value": 52.19
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          {
            "period": "2002",
            "value": 48.48
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            "period": "2003",
            "value": 45.86
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            "period": "2004",
            "value": 44.67
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            "period": "2005",
            "value": 41.96
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            "period": "2006",
            "value": 39.08
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          {
            "period": "2007",
            "value": 32.95
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            "period": "2008",
            "value": 35.75
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          {
            "period": "2009",
            "value": 31.76
          },
          {
            "period": "2010",
            "value": 31.85
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            "period": "2011",
            "value": 32.91
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            "period": "2012",
            "value": 34.25
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            "period": "2013",
            "value": 37.34
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            "period": "2014",
            "value": 39.2
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            "period": "2015",
            "value": 40.26
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          {
            "period": "2016",
            "value": 42.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2017",
            "value": 40.4
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          {
            "period": "2018",
            "value": 43.17
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          {
            "period": "2019",
            "value": 43.33
          },
          {
            "period": "2020",
            "value": 43.77
          },
          {
            "period": "2021",
            "value": 43.72
          },
          {
            "period": "2022",
            "value": 43.08
          },
          {
            "period": "2023",
            "value": 47.58
          },
          {
            "period": "2024",
            "value": 54.03
          }
        ],
        "unit": "percent",
        "slope5y": 2.1400000000000006,
        "fullRange": {
          "from": "1975",
          "to": "2024",
          "count": 50,
          "percentile": 90.0,
          "min": 29.32,
          "max": 66.2,
          "p10": 32.5
        },
        "criterion": {
          "rule": "at-or-below",
          "percentile": 10,
          "supports": "markets are de-US-ifying alongside reserves"
        },
        "supports": false,
        "sourceNote": "World Bank, Market capitalization of listed domestic companies (CM.MKT.LCAP.CD), https://data.worldbank.org.",
        "derivationNote": "Baked annual table, USA / WLD ratio -- see compass_secular.py for the regeneration query. Counter-evidence by design: the only series in this section that can only argue AGAINST the de-dollarisation thesis, included so the section shows both halves of the picture rather than only the half that agrees with itself."
      },
      {
        "id": "official-gold-purchases",
        "label": "Official gold purchases, reported (four-quarter change)",
        "value": 190.3,
        "asOf": "2026-Q2",
        "history": [
          {
            "period": "2011-Q1",
            "value": 245.8
          },
          {
            "period": "2011-Q2",
            "value": 272.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2011-Q3",
            "value": 267.1
          },
          {
            "period": "2011-Q4",
            "value": 404.7
          },
          {
            "period": "2012-Q1",
            "value": 374.2
          },
          {
            "period": "2012-Q2",
            "value": 385.3
          },
          {
            "period": "2012-Q3",
            "value": 420.4
          },
          {
            "period": "2012-Q4",
            "value": 363.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2013-Q1",
            "value": 367.1
          },
          {
            "period": "2013-Q2",
            "value": 361.7
          },
          {
            "period": "2013-Q3",
            "value": 344.5
          },
          {
            "period": "2013-Q4",
            "value": 297.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2014-Q1",
            "value": 167.3
          },
          {
            "period": "2014-Q2",
            "value": 189.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2014-Q3",
            "value": 209.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2014-Q4",
            "value": 215.3
          },
          {
            "period": "2015-Q1",
            "value": 275.7
          },
          {
            "period": "2015-Q2",
            "value": 221.2
          },
          {
            "period": "2015-Q3",
            "value": 216.2
          },
          {
            "period": "2015-Q4",
            "value": 233.2
          },
          {
            "period": "2016-Q1",
            "value": 206.2
          },
          {
            "period": "2016-Q2",
            "value": 379.8
          },
          {
            "period": "2016-Q3",
            "value": 275.9
          },
          {
            "period": "2016-Q4",
            "value": 172.9
          },
          {
            "period": "2017-Q1",
            "value": 254.5
          },
          {
            "period": "2017-Q2",
            "value": 278.9
          },
          {
            "period": "2017-Q3",
            "value": 350.6
          },
          {
            "period": "2017-Q4",
            "value": 470.7
          },
          {
            "period": "2018-Q1",
            "value": 434.2
          },
          {
            "period": "2018-Q2",
            "value": 395.7
          },
          {
            "period": "2018-Q3",
            "value": 331.3
          },
          {
            "period": "2018-Q4",
            "value": 366.3
          },
          {
            "period": "2019-Q1",
            "value": 401.3
          },
          {
            "period": "2019-Q2",
            "value": 563.7
          },
          {
            "period": "2019-Q3",
            "value": 607.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2019-Q4",
            "value": 496.4
          },
          {
            "period": "2020-Q1",
            "value": 463.5
          },
          {
            "period": "2020-Q2",
            "value": 343.7
          },
          {
            "period": "2020-Q3",
            "value": 285.6
          },
          {
            "period": "2020-Q4",
            "value": 248.1
          },
          {
            "period": "2021-Q1",
            "value": 315.1
          },
          {
            "period": "2021-Q2",
            "value": 336.7
          },
          {
            "period": "2021-Q3",
            "value": 333.8
          },
          {
            "period": "2021-Q4",
            "value": 284.1
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q1",
            "value": 160.9
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q2",
            "value": 135.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q3",
            "value": 149.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2022-Q4",
            "value": 252.4
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q1",
            "value": 365.8
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q2",
            "value": 226.9
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q3",
            "value": 340.5
          },
          {
            "period": "2023-Q4",
            "value": 363.2
          },
          {
            "period": "2024-Q1",
            "value": 305.8
          },
          {
            "period": "2024-Q2",
            "value": 395.9
          },
          {
            "period": "2024-Q3",
            "value": 252.3
          },
          {
            "period": "2024-Q4",
            "value": 246.9
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-Q1",
            "value": 235.1
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-Q2",
            "value": 254.6
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-Q3",
            "value": 284.3
          },
          {
            "period": "2025-Q4",
            "value": 261.0
          },
          {
            "period": "2026-Q1",
            "value": 50.8
          },
          {
            "period": "2026-Q2",
            "value": 190.3
          }
        ],
        "unit": "tonnes",
        "slope5y": -23.771428571428572,
        "fullRange": {
          "from": "2011-Q1",
          "to": "2026-Q2",
          "count": 62,
          "percentile": 12.9,
          "min": 50.8,
          "max": 607.0,
          "p10": 189.0
        },
        "criterion": {
          "rule": "at-or-above",
          "percentile": 90,
          "supports": "central banks are moving into gold"
        },
        "supports": false,
        "sourceNote": "International Monetary Fund, International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (IRFCL), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
        "derivationNote": "Tonnes of gold added over the preceding four quarters by the central banks reporting to the IMF, from IRFCL gold VOLUMES in fine troy ounces (never the US-dollar value, which rises with the gold price alone). Differenced across the reporters present at both ends of each four-quarter span, so a country beginning or ceasing to report is not read as buying or selling. Counts only reported holdings and is therefore a lower bound on world official buying. Author's own calculation; history through 2026-Q1 is baked, later quarters are recomputed from a rolling 18-month window once their reporter basket has filled."
      }
    ],
    "supporting": 2,
    "total": 6,
    "bar": 4,
    "verdict": "The long cycle is not calling a turn."
  },
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "us-industrial-production",
      "label": "US industrial production",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-07",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Federal Reserve Board via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-nonfarm-payrolls",
      "label": "US nonfarm payrolls",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-08",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-initial-claims",
      "label": "US initial jobless claims",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-08-29",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Employment and Training Administration via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, sign inverted, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-retail-sales",
      "label": "US retail sales",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-07",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Census Bureau via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "ea-industrial-production",
      "label": "Euro-area industrial production",
      "region": "EA",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-06",
      "source": "eurostat",
      "attribution": "Source: Eurostat (sts_inpr_m). Eurostat is not responsible for this derived calculation.",
      "derivationNote": "Modified by the author: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "ea-unemployment",
      "label": "Euro-area unemployment rate",
      "region": "EA",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-07",
      "source": "eurostat",
      "attribution": "Source: Eurostat (une_rt_m). Eurostat is not responsible for this derived calculation.",
      "derivationNote": "Modified by the author: 12-month change in percentage points, sign inverted, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "ea-retail-trade",
      "label": "Euro-area retail trade",
      "region": "EA",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-07",
      "source": "eurostat",
      "attribution": "Source: Eurostat (sts_trtu_m). Eurostat is not responsible for this derived calculation.",
      "derivationNote": "Modified by the author: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "jp-industrial-production",
      "label": "Japan industrial production",
      "region": "JP",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-05",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Key short-term economic indicators (DSD_KEI@DF_KEI), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "jp-unemployment",
      "label": "Japan unemployment rate",
      "region": "JP",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-06",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Key short-term economic indicators (DSD_KEI@DF_KEI), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: 12-month change in percentage points, sign inverted, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "jp-retail-trade",
      "label": "Japan retail trade",
      "region": "JP",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-05",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Key short-term economic indicators (DSD_KEI@DF_KEI), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "kr-industrial-production",
      "label": "Korea industrial production",
      "region": "KR",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-06",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Key short-term economic indicators (DSD_KEI@DF_KEI), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "kr-unemployment",
      "label": "Korea unemployment rate",
      "region": "KR",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-06",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Key short-term economic indicators (DSD_KEI@DF_KEI), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: 12-month change in percentage points, sign inverted, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "kr-retail-trade",
      "label": "Korea retail trade",
      "region": "KR",
      "role": "growth",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-06",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Key short-term economic indicators (DSD_KEI@DF_KEI), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-cpi-headline",
      "label": "US CPI, all items",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "inflation",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-07",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-cpi-core",
      "label": "US CPI, ex food & energy",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "inflation",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-07",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "ea-hicp-headline",
      "label": "Euro-area HICP, all items",
      "region": "EA",
      "role": "inflation",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-08",
      "source": "eurostat",
      "attribution": "Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr). Eurostat is not responsible for this derived calculation.",
      "derivationNote": "Modified by the author: 12-month change in the annual rate, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "ea-hicp-core",
      "label": "Euro-area HICP, ex energy & food",
      "region": "EA",
      "role": "inflation",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-08",
      "source": "eurostat",
      "attribution": "Source: Eurostat (prc_hicp_minr). Eurostat is not responsible for this derived calculation.",
      "derivationNote": "Modified by the author: 12-month change in the annual rate, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "cn-cpi-headline",
      "label": "China consumer prices, all items",
      "region": "CN",
      "role": "inflation",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-06",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Key short-term economic indicators (DSD_KEI@DF_KEI), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "kr-cpi-headline",
      "label": "Korea consumer prices, all items",
      "region": "KR",
      "role": "inflation",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-06",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Key short-term economic indicators (DSD_KEI@DF_KEI), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "jp-cpi-headline",
      "label": "Japan consumer prices, all items",
      "region": "JP",
      "role": "inflation",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-06",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Consumer price indices (DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own calculation: year-over-year percent change, z-scored against its own history."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-breakeven-10y",
      "label": "US 10-year inflation breakeven",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "gauge",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-09",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, shown as-is. The ten-year inflation rate priced by the market, and one half of the real-rate trigger."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-real-rate-10y",
      "label": "US 10-year real rate (TIPS)",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "gauge",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-08",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Treasury via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, shown as-is."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-financial-conditions",
      "label": "US credit conditions (Chicago Fed NFCI, credit subindex)",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "gauge",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-08-28",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, shown as-is. Replaces high-yield spreads, which may not legally be republished."
    },
    {
      "id": "ea-policy-rate",
      "label": "ECB deposit facility rate",
      "region": "EA",
      "role": "gauge",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-10",
      "source": "ecb",
      "attribution": "Source: European Central Bank.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, shown as-is."
    },
    {
      "id": "ea-govt-yield-10y",
      "label": "Euro-area 10-year AAA government yield",
      "region": "EA",
      "role": "gauge",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-08",
      "source": "ecb",
      "attribution": "Source: European Central Bank.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, shown as-is."
    },
    {
      "id": "de-bund-yield-10y",
      "label": "German 10-year government yield",
      "region": "EA",
      "role": "gauge",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-09",
      "source": "bundesbank",
      "attribution": "Quelle: Deutsche Bundesbank. Derived values are the author's own calculation based on Bundesbank data.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, shown as-is."
    },
    {
      "id": "oecd-share-prices-us",
      "label": "US share price index (OECD)",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "gauge",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-07",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Financial market (DSD_STES@DF_FINMARK), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own composite: equal-weight with the euro-area index, expressed as drawdown from the trailing 12-month maximum. Not MSCI World; not 'the world stock market'."
    },
    {
      "id": "oecd-share-prices-ea",
      "label": "Euro-area share price index (OECD)",
      "region": "EA",
      "role": "gauge",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-07",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Financial market (DSD_STES@DF_FINMARK), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Own composite: equal-weight with the US index, expressed as drawdown from the trailing 12-month maximum. Not MSCI World; not 'the world stock market'."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-shiller-cape",
      "label": "US cyclically adjusted P/E (Shiller CAPE)",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "input",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-08",
      "source": "shiller",
      "attribution": "Data developed by Robert J. Shiller, shillerdata.com.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level. Fed the two valuation gauges until they moved onto the whole-market earnings yield; now feeds neither. Kept fetched and published so the staleness alarm still covers Shiller's file."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-shiller-long-rate",
      "label": "US 10-year Treasury yield (Shiller series)",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "input",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-08",
      "source": "shiller",
      "attribution": "Data developed by Robert J. Shiller, shillerdata.com.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, used as an input to the valuation gauges."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-shiller-cpi",
      "label": "US consumer price index (Shiller series, 1871\u2013)",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "input",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-08",
      "source": "shiller",
      "attribution": "Data developed by Robert J. Shiller, shillerdata.com.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, used as an input to the valuation gauges."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-corp-entrepreneurial-income",
      "label": "US non-financial corporate entrepreneurial income, gross",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "input",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2024",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Annual non-financial accounts by institutional sector (DSD_NASEC10@DF_TABLE14), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, used as an input to the whole-market earnings yield."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-corp-capital-consumption",
      "label": "US non-financial corporate consumption of fixed capital",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "input",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2024",
      "source": "oecd",
      "attribution": "OECD (2026), Annual non-financial accounts by institutional sector (DSD_NASEC10@DF_TABLE14), https://sdmx.oecd.org (accessed at build time). Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, used as an input to the whole-market earnings yield."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-corp-equity-market-value",
      "label": "US non-financial corporate equity, market value",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "input",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED. This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Published level, used as an input to the whole-market earnings yield."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-treasuries-foreign-held",
      "label": "Federal debt held by foreign and international investors",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "stale",
      "lastObservation": "2025-Q4",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis / U.S. Department of the Treasury via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "As published; quarterly."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-federal-interest-payments",
      "label": "Federal government interest payments",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q2",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis / U.S. Department of the Treasury via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "As published; quarterly."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-federal-receipts",
      "label": "Federal government current receipts",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q2",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis / U.S. Department of the Treasury via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "As published; quarterly."
    },
    {
      "id": "us-federal-debt-total",
      "label": "Federal debt: total public debt",
      "region": "US",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis / U.S. Department of the Treasury via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "As published; quarterly."
    },
    {
      "id": "fx-usd-eur",
      "label": "USD per EUR",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-04",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Daily spot rate, averaged to the quarter for the reserve-share FX adjustment."
    },
    {
      "id": "fx-usd-jpy",
      "label": "USD per JPY",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-04",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Daily spot rate, averaged to the quarter for the reserve-share FX adjustment."
    },
    {
      "id": "fx-usd-gbp",
      "label": "USD per GBP",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-04",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Daily spot rate, averaged to the quarter for the reserve-share FX adjustment."
    },
    {
      "id": "fx-usd-chf",
      "label": "USD per CHF",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-04",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Daily spot rate, averaged to the quarter for the reserve-share FX adjustment."
    },
    {
      "id": "fx-usd-cad",
      "label": "USD per CAD",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-04",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Daily spot rate, averaged to the quarter for the reserve-share FX adjustment."
    },
    {
      "id": "fx-usd-aud",
      "label": "USD per AUD",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-04",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Daily spot rate, averaged to the quarter for the reserve-share FX adjustment."
    },
    {
      "id": "fx-usd-cny",
      "label": "USD per CNY",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-09-04",
      "source": "fred",
      "attribution": "Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) via FRED\u00ae, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
      "derivationNote": "Daily spot rate, averaged to the quarter for the reserve-share FX adjustment."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-usd-nominal",
      "label": "Allocated FX reserves held in USD",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of allocated reserves held in this currency, as reported. Input to the FX-adjusted share; not a published share itself."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-eur-nominal",
      "label": "Allocated FX reserves held in EUR",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of allocated reserves held in this currency, as reported. Input to the FX-adjusted share; not a published share itself."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-jpy-nominal",
      "label": "Allocated FX reserves held in JPY",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of allocated reserves held in this currency, as reported. Input to the FX-adjusted share; not a published share itself."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-gbp-nominal",
      "label": "Allocated FX reserves held in GBP",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of allocated reserves held in this currency, as reported. Input to the FX-adjusted share; not a published share itself."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-chf-nominal",
      "label": "Allocated FX reserves held in CHF",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of allocated reserves held in this currency, as reported. Input to the FX-adjusted share; not a published share itself."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-cad-nominal",
      "label": "Allocated FX reserves held in CAD",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of allocated reserves held in this currency, as reported. Input to the FX-adjusted share; not a published share itself."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-aud-nominal",
      "label": "Allocated FX reserves held in AUD",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of allocated reserves held in this currency, as reported. Input to the FX-adjusted share; not a published share itself."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-cny-nominal",
      "label": "Allocated FX reserves held in CNY",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of allocated reserves held in this currency, as reported. Input to the FX-adjusted share; not a published share itself."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-othc-nominal",
      "label": "Allocated FX reserves held in OTHC",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of allocated reserves held in this currency, as reported. Input to the FX-adjusted share; not a published share itself."
    },
    {
      "id": "cofer-t-nominal",
      "label": "Total allocated FX reserves (all currencies)",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q1",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Nominal US-dollar value of total allocated reserves across every reported currency, as reported. The denominator for the non-traditional-currency share; not a holding in any single currency."
    },
    {
      "id": "official-gold-purchases",
      "label": "Official gold purchases, reported (four-quarter change)",
      "region": "World",
      "role": "secular",
      "status": "fresh",
      "lastObservation": "2026-Q2",
      "source": "imf",
      "attribution": "International Monetary Fund, International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity (IRFCL), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution; the IMF does not warrant any derived calculation shown here.",
      "derivationNote": "Tonnes of gold added over the preceding four quarters by the central banks reporting to the IMF, from IRFCL gold VOLUMES in fine troy ounces (never the US-dollar value, which rises with the gold price alone). Differenced across the reporters present at both ends of each four-quarter span, so a country beginning or ceasing to report is not read as buying or selling. Counts only reported holdings and is therefore a lower bound on world official buying. Author's own calculation; history through 2026-Q1 is baked, later quarters are recomputed from a rolling 18-month window once their reporter basket has filled."
    }
  ],
  "staleSeriesCount": 1,
  "method": {
    "chain": "raw level \u2192 year-over-year change \u2192 z-score against an EMA-weighted baseline of the series' own past \u2192 composite weighted by each economy's GDP share, stepped era by era, with a region's own indicators counting equally among themselves",
    "halfLifeYears": 10.0,
    "minHistoryYears": 8.0,
    "pointInTime": true,
    "vintageCaveat": "Computed from the latest published vintage. Macro series are revised, so historical points differ from what was knowable at the time."
  },
  "notices": [
    "This page is a diagnostic instrument, not advice. It describes where the economy appears to be, from public data; it does not forecast markets, and it is not investment advice. I am not a licensed investment adviser.",
    "This product uses the FRED\u00ae API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.",
    "Eurostat data has been modified by the author; Eurostat is not responsible for any derived calculation shown here.",
    "OECD (2026), Key short-term economic indicators; Consumer price indices; Financial market; Annual non-financial accounts by institutional sector, https://sdmx.oecd.org. Downstream users must carry this acknowledgement.",
    "Euro-area policy and yield data: Source: European Central Bank.",
    "Quelle: Deutsche Bundesbank. Derived values are the author's own calculation based on Bundesbank data.",
    "Inflation deflator and the long-run real rate: data developed by Robert J. Shiller, shillerdata.com.",
    "International Monetary Fund, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), https://data.imf.org. Reproduced with attribution. Every reserve-share figure on this page derived from COFER -- including the FX-adjusted USD share and the non-traditional-currency share -- is the author's own calculation; the IMF does not warrant or endorse any of it."
  ]
}